Sometimes the statistics will be misleading, sometimes it will be our own eyes that deceive us, and sometimes the apparent contradiction can be resolved once we get a handle on what is happening. They will usually show you something different, and they will sometimes pose a puzzle: How could both views be true? That should be the beginning of an investigation. Tim’s second piece of advice, then, is to try to take both perspectives-the worm’s-eye view as well as the bird’s-eye view. We need to be curious about the world that we see, hear, touch, and smell, as well as the world we can examine through a spreadsheet. Understanding causation is tough even with good statistics, but hopeless without them.Īnd yet, if we understand only the statistics, we understand little. It is all too easy to convince ourselves that whatever we’ve seen with our own eyes is the whole truth it isn’t. If we don’t understand the statistics, we’re likely to be badly mistaken about the way the world is. Rule Two: Ponder Your Personal Experience When we encounter a statistical claim about the world and are thinking of sharing it on social media or typing a furious rebuttal, we should instead ask ourselves, “How does this make me feel?” Today’s persuaders don’t want you to stop and think.

When was the last time Donald Trump, or for that matter Greenpeace, tweeted something designed to make you pause in calm reflection? The cognitive reflection questions invite us to leap to the wrong conclusion without thinking. You don’t need to be an emotionless robot, but you could and should think as well as feel. If you feel outrage, triumph, denial, pause for a moment. When you see a statistical claim, pay attention to your own reaction. The first simple step is to notice those emotions. We can learn to control our emotions-that is part of the process of growing up. We are capable of persuading ourselves to believe strange things, and to doubt solid evidence, in service of our political partisanship, our desire to keep drinking coffee, our unwillingness to face up to the reality of our HIV diagnosis, or any other cause that invokes an emotional response. Our emotions can, and often do, shape our beliefs more than any logic. Our emotional reaction to a statistical or scientific claim isn’t a side issue. Kindle | Hardcover | Audiobook Rule One: Search Your Feelings

The Data Detective by Tim Harford